So it looks like on Feb 22 UAN spiked, probably upon announcement of a $10.50 dividend. This after a period of doldrums based on energy volatility and lack of retail faith. As Mr Market spread the word the price rose and rose to about $117. Then this morning, the day of the ex date, we see a plunge to $103, and the market is riding at just under $106 at about the level of the Feb 22 spike.

Hmmm. I am going to rake in the dividend.

But it is clear the time to buy, for believers, was in the $92 (and under) doldrums. It took faith. At the time I was rotating to less risk and did not want to overweight on fertilizer. Natural gas was high at the time and faith was thin fumes found somewhere in the stratosphere.

This is play money for me and it is not for the faint of heart. Still, I suppose I am addicted. The world will starve without this mineral being added to grain crops.

The only question is how to safely play the volatility. Not whether, but how.